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I’m somewhat happy to see this topic brought up. I was recently working on a redesign of my portfolio which required the use of transparent PNG (just used a behaviour file for IE to fix it) and the z-index property. eventually the design was ditched, but I agree with you that we’ll probably see a lot of sites making use of this technique throughout 2006, especially now that IE’s announced all their fixes.
by the way, what exactly do you expect the penetration rate to be for IE7. It’s only going to be for XP SP2 users, so I can’t really see a ton of users mkaing the switch so fast, if anything I can only see more users switching to other browsers.